The trucking sector plays an integral role in the overall economy by moving mass amounts of freight and supporting supply chains across industry lines. In recent years, this sector has continued to fuel economic growth. According to the latest report from the American Trucking Associations (ATA), the industry moved 11.18 billion tons of freight and generated $987 billion in revenue in 2023 alone. Preliminary figures estimate that the sector moved even more freight—11.27 billion tons—in 2024. Looking ahead, the report projects that total trucking tonnage will rise by another 1.6% in 2025, indicating ongoing industry growth. Nevertheless, there are still some potential risks that, left unmanaged, may threaten the sector’s stability moving forward. As such, trucking businesses should monitor several emerging developments that could impact the industry this year—including nuclear verdict and litigation issues, cargo theft concerns, technological advancements and labor challenges—and adjust their risk management programs accordingly. This article provides more information on trucking sector trends to watch in 2025 and outlines strategies to help navigate them.

 

 

Social inflation refers to the rising cost of insurance claims due to increased litigation, broader definitions of liability and more friendly legal environments. It has affected many industries in recent years, with the trucking sector being one of the hardest hit. Specifically, this industry has become particularly susceptible to nuclear verdicts—jury awards exceeding $10 million—due to the serious nature of accidents involving large commercial vehicles. The American Transportation Research Institute reported that trucking verdicts have increased by more than 50% each year for the past decade, with nuclear verdicts in the sector doubling during this time frame. As a result, the average statutory closed claim payment for commercial auto liability cases increased by 39% between 2019 and 2023.

 

Due to the rise in nuclear verdicts, attorneys are more inclined to go to trial, which typically extends litigation and significantly raises the cost of defending a claim. Third-party litigation funding is also contributing to this trend. This funding occurs when a third party provides financial support for a lawsuit and, in exchange, receives a portion of the settlement. In the past, the steep cost of attorney fees would often scare plaintiffs away from taking a lawsuit to trial. But now, with litigation funding, a third party covers most or all costs associated with the litigation, leading to more cases being pursued. Not only is litigation funding becoming more common, but it also increases the cost of litigation overall—sometimes to seven figures. This is because plaintiffs can take cases further and seek larger settlements. The ongoing surge in nuclear verdicts has caused many commercial auto insurance carriers to either decrease their risk appetites by hiking up premiums and restricting coverage offerings or, in some cases, exit the market altogether. Consequently, trucking companies affected by nuclear verdicts may face elevated rates and be less likely to have sufficient coverage for these events, potentially leading to financial devastation when they occur. While tort reform at the state level could provide some relief from litigation challenges (i.e., caps on noneconomic damages), trucking businesses can expect the current environment surrounding nuclear verdicts and related litigation issues to persist in 2025.

 

Considering these issues, trucking companies should take steps to minimize potential accidents among their fleets, thus limiting the likelihood of subsequent litigation. These steps may include enhancing driver safety programs and training; performing routine vehicle inspections and maintenance; establishing clear policies on distracted driving, fatigued driving and driving under the influence; complying with all applicable commercial driving legislation; and conducting effective post-accident investigation procedures to prevent future collisions on the road. Trucking businesses should also be sure to document these risk management strategies for their commercial auto insurers, as doing so may lead to premium discounts and expanded capacity.

 

 

The past few years have seen a rise in cargo theft concerns across the trucking industry, exacerbating ongoing transportation bottlenecks, delivery delays and supply chain challenges. This is largely due to a surge in organized crime since the initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to recent research conducted by multinational data analytics company Verisk, the trucking sector recorded 776 cargo theft incidents in the third quarter of 2024 alone, totaling more than $39 million in valued losses. Among these incidents, the most targeted states were California, Texas and Illinois, with the most vulnerable locations being warehouses, distribution centers and truck stops. Commonly stolen commodities include electronics, clothing, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverages. These items are typically chosen because they are in high demand, which allows criminals to easily resell them on the black market. Also, such commodities are both portable and difficult to trace, making them increasingly attractive to thieves. In any case, cargo theft can significantly strain trucking companies’ operations, contributing to widespread disruptions, financial losses and reputational damage.

 

To help mitigate these incidents, federal regulators are introducing several initiatives. In particular, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) plans to roll out a new registration system in phases throughout 2025. This modernized system is intended to simplify the commercial fleet registration process, streamline identification protocols for regulated vehicles, enhance driver and entity verification tools, and improve the overall user experience for motor carriers. Altogether, this system will help reduce cargo theft exposures by collecting and validating motor carrier data in real time and sending automated electronic notifications with the latest fleet updates, giving trucking companies prompt information that may help them identify and remediate potential fraud incidents before they lead to large-scale losses. In addition to the FMCSA’s efforts, the federal government is in the process of developing the Safeguarding Our Supply Chains Act. If implemented, this legislation will establish a national Supply Chain Crime Coordination Center and Theft Task Force that will work closely with the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI to detect, disrupt and deter organized crime across supply chains.

 

Even with these initiatives in the pipeline, trucking businesses should adopt their own measures to reduce cargo theft risks and protect their operations. These measures may include adopting in-depth vetting protocols for potential employees, training drivers to follow predetermined routes and park vehicles in secure locations, utilizing encrypted communication channels to discuss transportation updates and delivery timelines, equipping vehicles with anti-theft solutions (e.g., wheel locks, tracking software and security alarms), and requiring a set number of employees to be present during deliveries.

 

 

As technology continues to advance across industry lines, many trucking companies are embracing a wide range of innovations in their fleets, namely artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous vehicles (AVs) and electric vehicles (EVs). These technological advancements can provide various benefits. For instance, AI tools can be leveraged to collect and analyze fleet data, review drivers’ habits behind the wheel, monitor vehicle conditions, schedule predictive maintenance, assess live traffic patterns and suggest alternative routes when needed. Also called self-driving vehicles, AVs limit the need for human drivers and follow the fastest and safest routes, all while responding to current road conditions and abiding by traffic laws. This, in turn, can help address driver shortages, minimize accidents caused by human error, optimize fuel consumption, and bolster overall fleet productivity and efficiency. On the other hand, EVs utilize electric batteries that are periodically charged rather than gasoline tanks. Such vehicles can help reduce fuel and operating costs and promote environmental sustainability through lowered carbon emissions.

 

Despite these innovations’ benefits, they carry additional risks, primarily in terms of cybersecurity. For instance, cybercriminals could hack into trucking companies’ AI tools or interconnected fleets to access sensitive data, compromise both stationary and active vehicles, make unauthorized changes to routes, derail deliveries, and, in severe cases, cause accidents on the road. These incidents could have devastating impacts on trucking businesses, their operations and their drivers. Apart from cybersecurity concerns, it’s worth noting that many types of AVs are still a work in progress; some of these vehicles have contributed to accidents, leaving their overall safety in question. Regulations surrounding AVs are also evolving, posing possible compliance issues for trucking companies that use these vehicles. Further, although EVs are supposed to be more efficient than gas-powered vehicles, some industry leaders have posed concerns regarding the safety of electric batteries and the actual range and performance of these vehicles, given the lack of reliable charging stations along major trucking routes.

 

What’s more, both AVs and EVs (and their associated infrastructure modifications) are more expensive to purchase and maintain than traditional vehicles, elevating upfront costs for trucking companies that invest in them and, in the event of accidents on the road, exacerbating repair costs and related commercial auto insurance claims. These elevated costs may also contribute to increased premiums. Considering these risks, trucking companies should carefully weigh the pros and cons of such innovations and confirm they have the resources needed to mitigate their exposures before implementation. If they opt to integrate these technological advancements within their operations, trucking businesses should prioritize strong cyber hygiene practices and provide employees with routine cybersecurity training to ensure they know how to detect and respond to possible threats.

 

 

While labor shortages have become a top concern for many industries in recent years, the trucking sector has been particularly impacted by a lack of commercial drivers. Even with an estimated 3.05 million truck drivers employed in the United States in 2023, the ATA projected a shortage of roughly 82,000 drivers at the end of 2024. What’s worse, the ATA anticipates that rising freight demand and an aging workforce could cause the driver shortage to skyrocket to 160,000 open positions by the end of the decade. To help minimize this shortage, a growing number of trucking businesses have offered higher salaries to attract and retain drivers. Yet, this has contributed to heightened overall operating costs. What’s worse, many trucking companies have still had to lower their driver applicant standards to fill open positions. These drivers often have fewer years of experience and shorter driving records. Such factors can make these new employees more likely to be involved in accidents on the road, contributing to an increase in commercial auto insurance losses and related claims.

 

The federal government introduced the DRIVE Safe Integrity Act in 2023 to combat risks stemming from inexperienced drivers. This bipartisan legislation aims to enhance safety and training standards for both new and current drivers and promote the adoption of a permanent apprenticeship program for young commercial drivers who are just starting their careers in trucking. Even with these regulatory efforts underway, it’s critical for trucking companies to establish their own initiatives for attracting and retaining qualified employees, such as improving working conditions, providing professional growth opportunities and tapping into underrepresented demographics (e.g., women) to expand their talent pools. Trucking businesses should also have plans to educate new drivers and encourage them to prioritize safety behind the wheel next year and beyond, thus minimizing accidents and associated losses.

 

 

Several trends are impacting the trucking sector in 2025, emphasizing the importance of staying informed and adaptive. By tracking these developments and mitigating any associated exposures, trucking businesses can effectively position themselves to promote long-term growth and boost operational success. Contact us today for additional industry-specific risk management guidance.